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Home Energy Crude Oil Rystad Energy Rystad Energy is an independent energy consulting services and business intelligence provider offering global databases, strategic advisory and research products for energy companies and suppliers,... More Info Set us as your preferred Google source Premium Content By Rystad Energy - Sep 25, 2026, 1:00 PM CDT Rystad Energy models Venezuelan crude output reaching 1.6 million bpd by 2028 and 1.8 million bpd by 2030 if capital, rigs and services scale up. Chevron, Eni, Repsol, Shell and new entrants like GeoPark, Hunt Oil and NABEP are expanding under revised contracts, with NABEP's Lake Maracaibo output already jumping from roughly 90,000 bpd to nearly 200,000 bpd.
Venezuela had just two active drilling rigs as of August, far short of the roughly 50 rigs needed by 2028 and the Hydrocarbons Ministry's 93-rig target. Venezuela’s upstream oil sector is attracting its broadest pool of international operators and capital in decades, with established majors expanding their footprints and new operators entering under revised contractual frameworks. If capital deployment, rig availability and oilfield services scale in line with requirements, Rystad Energy models Venezuelan crude production reaching around 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2028 and 1.8 million bpd by 2030.
The roster of companies now actively looking to expand or operate in Venezuela is genuinely different from anything we have seen in years. Established operators are taking on larger roles and new names are entering the market. A wider group of operators should help mobilize the capital and activity needed to rebuild rigs, oilfield services and infrastructure across the entire supply chain.
Radhika Bansal, Senior Vice President, Oil and Gas, Rystad Energy Learn more with Rystad Energy’s Upstream Solution . Chevron has added Carabobo-1 and Carabobo-2-Sur-A to its portfolio and outlined more than $7 billion in investment over five years. Eni has taken exclusive operatorship of Junin 5 under a new 25-year production participation contract.
Repsol has regained operational control at Petroquiriquire, and Shell has re-entered through redevelopment agreements for Carito and Pirital. New entrants include regional independent GeoPark, Texas-based Hunt Oil and Brazilian independent Fluxus Oil, Gas & Energy, while North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP) has substantially expanded its existing position through a framework covering 17 producing and development areas. Rystad Energy favors investment programs tied to established operators and defined assets over larger ambitions requiring substantial external capital.
NABEP’s $100 billion figure represents a long-term funding requirement, not committed near-term capital, and the company has not disclosed a detailed financing structure. The more binding constraint is operational, with Baker Hughes reporting just two active drilling rigs in Venezuela as of August, against a Hydrocarbons Ministry target of around 93 rigs by 2028. The oilfield services supply chain is beginning to rebuild, SLB has around 15 rigs positioned in Venezuela that could potentially be reactivated within a year.
Overall, Rystad estimates activity would need to reach around 50 rigs by 2028 and nearly 80 by 2030 to support the modeled production pathway. A number of newly identified opportunities were previously associated with Russian and Chinese operators, and further restructuring of some legacy positions remains possible as the new contractual framework develops. Radhika Bansal, Senior Vice President, Oil and Gas, Rystad Energy Near-term production growth will be predominantly brownfield-led, with incremental barrels coming from field rehabilitation, well reactivations and infill drilling across NABEP’s Lake Maracaibo portfolio, Chevron’s Petropiar and Petroboscan assets, Eni’s Corocoro field and GeoPark’s Bare block.
NABEP’s three production participation contracts have already demonstrated what renewed investment can deliver: NABEP had already begun changing this picture through its involvement in the former Russian-linked Petrozamora operations around Lake Maracaibo - combined production from those assets appears to have risen from roughly 90,000 bpd at end-2024 to nearly 200,000 bpd today. The transition to greenfield-led growth will follow in the 2030s, anchored by Chevron’s Ayacucho 8, Eni’s Junin 5 and NABEP’s newly awarded Orinoco blocks. In Rystad’s modeled upside scenario, this combination could lift Venezuelan crude production to around 2.58 million bpd by 2035, with the incremental volumes almost evenly split between brownfield and greenfield additions.
Further upside is possible as investor interest broadens. Continental Resources has signed a preliminary agreement for Ayacucho 2, ExxonMobil is in discussions over a potential return, TotalEnergies has signed an MoU with PDVSA covering new hydrocarbon opportunities, and a Turkish-linked investor is moving ahead with investment in the producing CEMA field. On the services side, Halliburton has also signed agreements with Eneva and WESCA to pursue oil and gas development opportunities.
Even so, the pace will remain conditional on actual capital deployment and Venezuela’s ability to rebuild drilling, services and infrastructure capacity. By Rystad Energy More Top Reads From Oilprice.com VLCC Rates Hit Record $1.27 Million a Day Hormuz Tanker Transits Crash to Single Digits as Crisis Deepens Beijing's Iran Oil Trade Draws Fresh Criticism From Capitol Hill Download The Free Oilprice App Today Back to homepage Rystad Energy Rystad Energy is an independent energy consulting services and business intelligence provider offering global databases, strategic advisory and research products for energy companies and suppliers,... More Info Leave a comment EXXON Mobil -0.35 Open 57.81 Trading Vol. 6.96M Previous Vol. 241.7B BUY 57.15 Sell 57.00
